Florida sorted out its November ballot on Tuesday night and produced three results that do not fit any tidy narrative. A Trump endorsed congressman won the Republican nomination for governor without his own governor’s blessing. A former Republican congressman won the Democratic one. And a democratic socialist state representative beat the most nationally famous name on the ballot.
Ron DeSantis is term limited, and the race to replace him is now set.
Byron Donalds Wins the Republican Nomination
Representative Byron Donalds took 48 percent in a ten candidate field. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins finished second with more than 25 percent, investor James Fishback landed around 10 percent, and former House Speaker Paul Renner took 8.5 percent.
Donalds had Donald Trump’s endorsement from early on, which in a Florida Republican primary is usually the end of the discussion. What made this one interesting is who did not endorse him. DeSantis stayed out, at one point calling Renner’s candidacy ill advised and later saying Renner would make a good governor. The sitting Republican governor spent the cycle notably unenthusiastic about the man Trump wanted.
The DeSantis Problem Nobody Solved
That gap is the story worth watching into November. DeSantis built a political operation in Florida that was, for a while, the most formidable in Republican politics outside Mar a Lago, and the 2024 primary left the relationship between the two men permanently awkward.
Donalds now has to run a general election in a state whose outgoing governor is popular with the base and has spent two years signaling ambivalence about him. That is a solvable problem in a state that has trended red, but it is not nothing.
David Jolly Wins as a Democrat
On the other side, former Republican congressman David Jolly took 61 percent over five opponents. Jolly represented a Tampa area district as a Republican, left the party, became a fixture on cable news as a Trump critic, and formally registered as a Democrat in 2025.
His path cleared unexpectedly. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, the candidate most Florida Democrats assumed would be the nominee, withdrew after a cancer diagnosis. Jolly went from an interesting recruitment story to the presumptive nominee in a matter of weeks.
The Attack Lines Are Already Set
Donalds went at Jolly on Tuesday night as everything that folks hate about Washington, D.C., which is a striking line from a sitting member of Congress about a man who left Congress a decade ago.
Jolly’s vulnerability is more specific. He supported Florida’s school voucher program and uses it himself, which is a difficult position to hold in a Democratic primary and an even more difficult one to explain to teachers unions in a general election. He also has to convince Democratic voters that a man who spent most of his career as a Republican is theirs now.
Angie Nixon Beats Alexander Vindman
The night’s genuine upset happened in the Senate primary. State Representative Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist, beat Alexander Vindman, the retired Army lieutenant colonel who testified in the first Trump impeachment and who massively outspent her.
Vindman had national name recognition, a national donor base and the fundraising that comes with both. Nixon had a Jacksonville base and a left flank that turned out. She now faces Republican Ashley Moody in November for the seat.
What the Vindman Loss Actually Means
Be careful with the lesson here, because both parties will overread it. The simplest reading is that national celebrity built on a single Washington moment does not automatically transfer to a state primary electorate, especially against a candidate with real local organizing.
The more interesting reading is about money. Vindman’s spending advantage was substantial and it did not move the outcome, which is a data point that will get cited in every Democratic primary postmortem for the next two years.
The Randy Fine Race Down Ballot
In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Representative Randy Fine won his Republican primary with 56.7 percent over poker personality Dan Bilzerian at 18 percent.
Bilzerian ran an openly antisemitic campaign against Fine, who is Jewish, including calling him a fat Jew and posting that the district understands the Jewish problem. Fine had endorsements from Trump, the Republican Jewish Coalition and AIPAC. That a campaign like Bilzerian’s cleared 18 percent in a major party primary is the part of Tuesday night that deserves more attention than it will get. For related coverage of party mechanics colliding with activist pressure, see our piece on the DNC’s non binding ICE resolutions.
Where This Leaves November
Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 and has drifted steadily right through the DeSantis years. Jolly starts as an underdog by any honest measure.
Turnout is the variable that will decide how competitive this actually is. Florida primaries draw a fraction of a presidential electorate, and the coalitions that produced Tuesday’s margins are not the coalitions that show up in November. Donalds won a plurality of a small, highly engaged Republican universe. Jolly won a Democratic field that lost its front runner to illness rather than to voters.
What he has is a genuinely unusual profile for the state and an opponent whose own governor spent the primary at arm’s length. What Donalds has is Trump, a red state and a fifteen point primary margin. Neither of those cancels the other out.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Florida Republican primary for governor?
Representative Byron Donalds, with 48 percent in a ten candidate field. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins finished second.
Who is the Democratic nominee for Florida governor?
Former Republican congressman David Jolly, who won 61 percent and switched parties in 2025.
Why is Ron DeSantis not running again?
He is term limited after two terms as governor.
Did DeSantis endorse Byron Donalds?
No. He stayed out of the primary and at one point spoke favorably about Paul Renner instead.
Who beat Alexander Vindman?
State Representative Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist, in the Democratic Senate primary. She faces Republican Ashley Moody in November.
What happened in Florida’s 6th District?
Representative Randy Fine won the Republican primary with 56.7 percent over Dan Bilzerian, who ran an explicitly antisemitic campaign and took 18 percent.
